Bubble Boys, But Maybe Not For Long

Leave it to New York native Jerry Seinfeld to introduce the world-famous "bubble boy." However, unlike the episode of the hit 1990s sitcom, there is more than one bubble boy taking center stage in 2011. In fact, there are approximately 15 to be exact; and like Seinfeld, they hail from the Empire State. I'm talking about the St. John's Red Storm, who added yet another convincing argument to their case for returning to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2002 with their 89-72 domination of ninth-ranked Connecticut last night; the Johnnies' fourth victory over a Top 25 team this season and third against one ranked within the Top 10.

For all the naysayers that still consider Steve Lavin to be a recruiter with no talent or ability on the court, last night was Exhibit A of Lavin's coaching acumen, which he considers enhanced by his "sabbatical" as a color commentator on ESPN for the last seven years prior to arriving on the corner of Union and Utopia on March 31st when he was officially introduced as the new Red Storm head man. With a record of 14-9 and a roster of players recruited by previous coach Norm Roberts, Lavin's sole connection to this squad going into the season was his job title. Almost a year later, Lavin has instilled his positive outlook, extroverted disposition and placid demeanor into a team that most had left for dead after only posting two winning seasons during Roberts' six-year tenure on the bench.

Under Roberts, St. John's had posted upsets over Top 25 teams; but those landmark wins came infrequently over six years, and had not been seen since the aforementioned (in past posts) 71-65 win over then-No. 7 Notre Dame at Madison Square Garden on January 3, 2009. Lavin posted his first Top 25 win two years to that day, (61-58 over then-No. 13 Georgetown) followed by three more: A 72-54 thrashing of then-No. 9 Notre Dame on January 16th, the epic 93-78 dismantling of third-ranked Duke on January 30th, and last night against UConn. All four of these quality wins have come at the Garden, where St. John's is 6-1 this season, with the lone loss coming January 12th against Syracuse. Three years ago, St. John's was 1-6 inside the "World's Most Famous Arena," with the sole victory coming in the Holiday Festival semifinals, a three-point decision against Marist.

Joining the quartet of home wins against teams that are part of the polls is the Johnnies' 81-71 road win against West Virginia in their Big East opener on December 31st, and fans, critics and experts alike argue that this is enough for St. John's to have locked up a tournament spot. However, 14-9 only scratches the surface, it doesn't shatter it. The positives for the Johnnies, you might ask? For starters, their RPI has moved up to 19, (courtesy of realtimerpi.com) while their strength of schedule remains No. 1 in the country. In fact, the Red Storm ledger garnered attention on the local airwaves here in New York this afternoon. In an interview with my friend and colleague Evan Roberts on WFAN's midday show, Lavin spoke about his decision to go against the grain early in the season. "A lot of teams load up on cupcakes and cream puffs," Lavin told Roberts when asked about his scheduling of a cross-country road trip to St. Mary's as opposed to playing low-major teams at home inside Carnesecca Arena as the team had done for the last six years under Roberts. "We didn't do that."

For every positive, (in this case, RPI and strength of schedule) there is a negative. (bad losses against St. Bonaventure and Fordham, as well as a 14-9 record) With seven games remaining, St. John's needs at least four wins to secure a spot in the Big Dance. The selection committee approaches teams like basic strategy in blackjack. For those unfamiliar with the analogy, I'll explain. In blackjack, the house hits on 16 and all hands under; and stays on 17 and all hands higher. Not counting conference tournaments, the committee usually hits by looking at a team's resume more closely when they have 17 (or less) regular-season wins; whereas they tend to give the thumbs-up to programs with 18 (or more) victories heading into a conference tournament. Of the seven left for the Red Storm, four wins would put them at 18-12 and 10-8 in the Big East. Here's a look at what's ahead, with a brief analysis of each one:

1) Sunday at Cincinnati - St. John's looks for revenge against a Bearcats team that stole a win away from them on January 22nd at Carnesecca Arena. Cincinnati, however, is 13-1 on their home court at Fifth Third Arena; but the loss was an 11-point defeat at the hands of a West Virginia team St. John's owns a road win against.

2) Tuesday at Marquette - Arguably the hardest game to figure out down the stretch. St. John's hasn't beaten Marquette since February 26, 1966; when Steve Lavin was just 17 months old and Golden Eagles coach Buzz Williams wasn't even conceived yet. Either way, the Red Storm have shown us to expect the unexpected, even if Marquette does not have a bad loss this season; and took both Wisconsin and UConn to the limit in both of their losses at the Bradley Center.

3) Saturday, February 19th vs. Pittsburgh - The last of eight games at Madison Square Garden this season comes against a buzzsaw Pitt team that could be without Ashton Gibbs depending on how soon he comes back from an injured MCL. Pitt has only lost twice this season, once to Tennessee on a neutral court; with the other defeat coming at the Petersen Center against Notre Dame, who split with the Johnnies this season.

4) Wednesday, February 23rd vs. DePaul - Just as Marquette is the hardest to figure out, DePaul is the easiest to decipher. Nothing against the Blue Demons, who have lost 46 of their last 47 Big East games since the 2008-09 season; (not counting their Big East tournament win against Cincinnati in March 2009) but St. John's is just more talented.

5) Saturday, February 26th at Villanova - This one just became a little more complex after Jonathan Mitchell's four-point play at the RAC Wednesday night defeated the Wildcats, but Jay Wright always seems to have the right formula for defeating St. John's. Throw in one of the best student sections in the country in 'Nova Nation, and you have an atmosphere that spells trouble for visitors if nothing else.

6) Thursday, March 3rd at Seton Hall - The trap game of the remaining seven in my opinion. St. John's has only been to the Prudential Center one time, and it wasn't pretty. I had the honor of doing play-by-play for WSJU Radio at the Rock on February 5, 2009 when Seton Hall got off to a 31-9 start before ultimately prevailing by the final of 91-81. Jeremy Hazell, who went off for 31 against the Storm that night, is once again healthy; and is capable of killing the Johnnies as he has in the past. That is, if he is able to overcome the matchup zone that rendered Kemba Walker into a non-factor last night for UConn.

7) Saturday, March 5th vs. South Florida - Senior night at Carnesecca Arena should be a win, although USF has shown flashes of being competitive this season. (Look at their near-upset of UConn) However, this Bulls team has clearly shown it is not half as good without Dominique Jones, who skipped his junior season to turn pro; and is now a member of the Dallas Mavericks.

So there you have it. I'd love to hear your thoughts on where St. John's will go down the stretch and what will ultimately become of them, either by adding comments here or on Twitter at twitter.com/DalyDoseOfHoops.

They may be living in a bubble, but if St. John's has their way, it won't be for much longer.